The year 2045 – The year of the apocalypse?

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Essay from the year 2013

I will start my considerations with a thesis, which - to my knowledge - has not been disproved yet: 
The Fermi paradox of the physicist Enrico Fermi from the year 1950. From it I conclude: We are alone in the 
universe and the apocalypse of every highly developed civilization occurs 100 years after the discovery of 
the nuclear fission. This point in time is reached in 2045.
To the Fermi paradox: We observe no further civilization in the universe which corresponds to ours or 
is more highly developed although we search intensively for it. Now, what is paradoxical about this fact? 
Paradox is that the time would have been sufficient to settle the whole Milky Way. That also with our 
already existing space technology. Our sun does not belong to the first generation of stars in space. Many 
millions of years before us, there were stars similar to the sun, which certainly had planets orbiting around 
them.
Why didn't civilizations that arose many millions of years before us do that? If they had, then we 
could observe them today or they would have invaded our planetary system, with whatever intentions. 
Science fiction literature lives from these aliens. But where are they, the aliens? So far we have not found 
them, despite the ever more intensive search. The probability that they really exist decreases with every 
year that passes and we do not find them.
The most probable solution of the paradox: Every high civilization inevitably strives for the 
apocalypse.
Conclusion: We are alone in the universe. But how is this to be explained? With hundreds of billions 
of galaxies with hundreds of billions of stars in every single galaxy and 14 billion years of evolution of the 
cosmos this cannot be at all! Why do we see nowhere extraterrestrial, intelligent, highly developed life?
The explanation could be: As soon as a certain level of the development is reached, the apocalypse 
follows every time. Therefore it does not go on and therefore no other highly developed civilizations are 
discoverable. 
When will now our apocalypse take place? Thesis from the Fermi paradox: 100 years after discovery 
of the nuclear fission, therefore in the year 2045.
The apocalypse, whether it now 2045, earlier or later, actually takes place, does not have to be the 
absolute fall of the human civilization. Only it seems to be sure that the civilization has not written the 
conquest of the universe on her flags afterwards. Which other explanations would there be that we can find 
no extraterrestrial highly developed life?

The solution of the Fermi paradox "Every high civilization extinguishes itself 100 years after the 
discovery of the nuclear fission" would be completely obsolete, if there were no other comparable planet in 
the whole universe except our earth. At least that is what the Rare Earth Hypothesis claims. The probability 
that there is another planet with more highly developed life on it is as large as the emergence of an Airbus-
300, if a hurricane sweeps over a junkyard - thus practically equal to zero. So the supporters of this 
hypothesis claim it in any case and they have weighty arguments for it.
I will mention only one of these arguments here: An Earth-like planet would have to have a moon 
similar to ours, stabilizing the rotation of the Earth. If this is not the case, the conditions of the evolution are 
so unstable that it does not even come up to the dinosaurs.
If the "Rare-Earth-Hypothesis" (we are alone in the universe) should prove to be true, we could still 
have hope that the apocalypse does not destroy us - at least our high civilization. But also in this case we 
are not saved for a long time. Why not?
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Raymond Kurzweil: Everything is heading for the year 2045.
US author, inventor, futurist, and Director of Engineering at Google Raymond Kurzweil has thought 
about this. The technological singularity that Kurzweil predicts for the year 2045 must be solved if humanity 
is to be spared a dark age. But more on that later.

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Can constellations of the major planets of the solar system signal that there will be particularly strong 
instabilities in the time around the year 2045? Without going into detail here, this question can be 
answered with yes (see     https://www.academia.edu/63952636/GRAVITY_BOOK_EN   chapter 5 Temporal 
Rhythms in Society).  
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We move first in the area of the Drake equation, which calculates how many highly civilized planets 
there are in our galaxy and is indirectly the cult equation of the alien literature. It has only one 
disadvantage: It consists of many factors which are inaccurate or not known.
Let us first assume that the Fermi paradox is true and the apocalypse thesis is its solution. A final 
nuclear war destroys our civilization, that would be certainly the worst case. In addition, however, there are 
a number of other solutions beyond catastrophe - nuclear war, pandemic, meteorite or comet collapse, new 
ice age, and so on.
Other solutions of the Fermi paradox: Other solutions could still exist, which in the end boil down to 
the fact that the intelligent extraterrestrials really exist, but we cannot find them or they do not want to be 
found or the whole universe is only an illusion after all or perhaps the simulation hypothesis is fulfilled. 
These are all solutions that are excellent for SF literature, but they are all low-probability 
speculations. Which solution of the Fermi paradox seems most probable from our present situation of 
human society?
Maybe this solution: Mankind reaches its development limits, standstill follows and then slow or fast 
regression into a medieval, sustainable society (best case). A scientific study, funded by Nasa's Goddard 
Space Flight Center and first published by Ecological Economics journal, concludes: "Just about every model 
that reflects our reality today is headed for collapse. The fall of the Roman Empire as well as the Han, 
Maurya, and Gupta empires as well as many developed Mesopotamian empires are all evidence that 
advanced, complex, and creative civilizations are fragile and impermanent."
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Jan Morris comes to a similar conclusion in his extensive studies, "Who Rules the World - Why 
Civilizations Rule and Are Ruled." We usually refer to the collapse of a civilization as the apocalypse and the 
messengers who announce such a collapse as the apocalyptic horsemen.
So what are these apocalyptic horsemen? Jan Morris sees the following five looming on the horizon 
of our civilization's development:
    Famines
    Epidemics
    Uncontrolled migration
    Political instability
    Climate change
But are these really all of them? Let's look at these five first.
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These occur in the wake of natural disasters and uncontrolled population growth. Merely "helping the 
world's hungry" is counterproductive if birth control is not the first priority. Wrongly understood aid only 
leads further into this dilemma and drags hitherto politically stable states into the abyss with it.
In nature, an evolutionary algorithm has been established. A population determines the number of 
its offspring according to the food supply. Humans have overridden this rule. He produces more and more 
food and people multiply steadily as if there were no upper limit. Of course, this is only possible as long as 
peak oil or another peak has not yet been reached. According to current estimates, however, this peak will 
be reached before 2045.
The extent to which alternative energies will be able to compensate for this is still unclear, since many 
of these solar energy generation plants still rely on fossil fuels for their production. The so-called "solar 
breeder", a solar plant that produces further solar plants with the extracted energy (simple reproduction) 
and even still produces energy surpluses (extended reproduction) is not in sight.
The forced renunciation of animal food by humans, could not solve the problem, because it would 
lead to political instabilities. Food is a source of energy for both humans and industry. If the ecological shift 
to renewable energy (solar energy in the broadest sense to biofuel) succeeds and sustainable agriculture 
takes hold, famines will probably occur on a massive scale before the year 2045. To prevent this, a 
controlled demographic development would have to be aimed at, but this is not in sight.
Conclusion: at the moment, it is foreseeable that this rider will appear on the horizon in the 
foreseeable future. Dystopian literature and films are often about the struggle for these human resources.
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In a globalized world, who will win, the adaptability of pathogens or the pharmaceutical industry? 
This decisive battle has yet to be fought. If the pathogens win, globalization will also lose. A pandemic is not 
yet the downfall of mankind. Past experience has shown that while a high percentage of people will always 
be affected, it need not lead to the extinction of the human population as a whole, but it may lead to 
political instability and chaos.
A genetic reinvention of humans could better address the problem. But we are still very far away 
from that. Genetic improvements on humans are obsolete today for "moral reasons". It is not politically 
possible, as it is with plants, to modify human genes to better cope with disease. The evolution by selection 
and mutation has not been adapted in its speed to the human (quantitative) development for a long time 
and thus only genetic new constructions would come into question to escape the dilemma.
These pandemics or even nuclear catastrophes, which then mutate into zombies and other creatures, 
are very popular in the dystopian works of literature and film art. Here, of course, one must also include 
computer games. Zombies are degenerate humans and you can shoot them without a guilty conscience. 
This is a sinister pattern. In history, foreign peoples or other religions were often classified as non-human, 
evil and infidel, so that they could then be invaded and exterminated without any qualms.
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In past times, it was usually a consequence of asymmetries in the world caused by economic, cultural 
and religious differences. The more differentiated the clashing populations were and are, the more 
devastating the consequences from the resulting political and state instabilities.
It is a social illusion that culturally and religiously very different population groups can live together 
peacefully. This may work in dictatorships, where the dictator of one social group rules and suppresses the 
other parts of society, or at least uses harshness to prevent civil wars. Historically, such symbioses have 
usually been short-lived.
What is true for individual human beings is also true for cultures and religions: they exploit human 
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laziness, fear and greed (Morris theorem) by instrumentalizing these evolutionary traits for their own 
exercise of power. In our time, this rider is also used as a so-called "migration weapon." Military conflicts, 
even if they are only planning games at first, are always played out at the beginning with the occurring 
refugee flows.
In dystopian literature, uncontrolled migration often plays only a marginal role. At least, I am not 
aware of any literature that would have made it the main cause of an apocalypse.
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The year 2045 – The year of the apocalypse?

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