The year 2045 – The year of the apocalypse? Wissen653 Aufrufe Speichern Drucken Weiterleiten PDF an Freunde weiterleiten: Ihre IP-Adresse wird aus Sicherheitsgründen gespeichert um kriminelle Aktivitäten und unerlaubten Spam zu unterbinden. Leiten Sie nur E-Mails weiter, wo der Empfänger mit dem Versand auch einverstanden ist. Ihre E-Mail Adresse Ihr Name Empfänger E-Mail Adresse Empfänger Name Ihre zusätzliche Nachricht Eigene PDF HochladenPDF & Publisher Info (QR-Code downloaden)Grosselfingen, 19.12.2021https://pdf-ins-internet.de/?p=109094 Essay from the year 2013 Essay from the year 2013 MichaelNitsche Bachstraße 13 72415 Grosselfingen michael.nitsche [at] lettris.deTeilen: Dark AgeDystopiaFermi-ParadoxFutureTechnological SingularityTranshumanismUtopia Essay from the year 2013 I will start my considerations with a thesis, which - to my knowledge - has not been disproved yet: The Fermi paradox of the physicist Enrico Fermi from the year 1950. From it I conclude: We are alone in the universe and the apocalypse of every highly developed civilization occurs 100 years after the discovery of the nuclear fission. This point in time is reached in 2045. To the Fermi paradox: We observe no further civilization in the universe which corresponds to ours or is more highly developed although we search intensively for it. Now, what is paradoxical about this fact? Paradox is that the time would have been sufficient to settle the whole Milky Way. That also with our already existing space technology. Our sun does not belong to the first generation of stars in space. Many millions of years before us, there were stars similar to the sun, which certainly had planets orbiting around them. Why didn't civilizations that arose many millions of years before us do that? If they had, then we could observe them today or they would have invaded our planetary system, with whatever intentions. Science fiction literature lives from these aliens. But where are they, the aliens? So far we have not found them, despite the ever more intensive search. The probability that they really exist decreases with every year that passes and we do not find them. The most probable solution of the paradox: Every high civilization inevitably strives for the apocalypse. Conclusion: We are alone in the universe. But how is this to be explained? With hundreds of billions of galaxies with hundreds of billions of stars in every single galaxy and 14 billion years of evolution of the cosmos this cannot be at all! Why do we see nowhere extraterrestrial, intelligent, highly developed life? The explanation could be: As soon as a certain level of the development is reached, the apocalypse follows every time. Therefore it does not go on and therefore no other highly developed civilizations are discoverable. When will now our apocalypse take place? Thesis from the Fermi paradox: 100 years after discovery of the nuclear fission, therefore in the year 2045. The apocalypse, whether it now 2045, earlier or later, actually takes place, does not have to be the absolute fall of the human civilization. Only it seems to be sure that the civilization has not written the conquest of the universe on her flags afterwards. Which other explanations would there be that we can find no extraterrestrial highly developed life? The solution of the Fermi paradox "Every high civilization extinguishes itself 100 years after the discovery of the nuclear fission" would be completely obsolete, if there were no other comparable planet in the whole universe except our earth. At least that is what the Rare Earth Hypothesis claims. The probability that there is another planet with more highly developed life on it is as large as the emergence of an Airbus- 300, if a hurricane sweeps over a junkyard - thus practically equal to zero. So the supporters of this hypothesis claim it in any case and they have weighty arguments for it. I will mention only one of these arguments here: An Earth-like planet would have to have a moon similar to ours, stabilizing the rotation of the Earth. If this is not the case, the conditions of the evolution are so unstable that it does not even come up to the dinosaurs. If the "Rare-Earth-Hypothesis" (we are alone in the universe) should prove to be true, we could still have hope that the apocalypse does not destroy us - at least our high civilization. But also in this case we are not saved for a long time. Why not? 1 Eingestellt über www.PDF-ins-Internet.de - Haftung für Inhalt und Inhaber aller Rechte ist der Puplisher Kontaktdaten und Anbieterkennung des Puplishers/Autors entnehmen Sie bitte dem PDF-Archives auf www.PDF-ins-Internet.de. ! !" Raymond Kurzweil: Everything is heading for the year 2045. US author, inventor, futurist, and Director of Engineering at Google Raymond Kurzweil has thought about this. The technological singularity that Kurzweil predicts for the year 2045 must be solved if humanity is to be spared a dark age. But more on that later. # Can constellations of the major planets of the solar system signal that there will be particularly strong instabilities in the time around the year 2045? Without going into detail here, this question can be answered with yes (see https://www.academia.edu/63952636/GRAVITY_BOOK_EN chapter 5 Temporal Rhythms in Society). $ " "# We move first in the area of the Drake equation, which calculates how many highly civilized planets there are in our galaxy and is indirectly the cult equation of the alien literature. It has only one disadvantage: It consists of many factors which are inaccurate or not known. Let us first assume that the Fermi paradox is true and the apocalypse thesis is its solution. A final nuclear war destroys our civilization, that would be certainly the worst case. In addition, however, there are a number of other solutions beyond catastrophe - nuclear war, pandemic, meteorite or comet collapse, new ice age, and so on. Other solutions of the Fermi paradox: Other solutions could still exist, which in the end boil down to the fact that the intelligent extraterrestrials really exist, but we cannot find them or they do not want to be found or the whole universe is only an illusion after all or perhaps the simulation hypothesis is fulfilled. These are all solutions that are excellent for SF literature, but they are all low-probability speculations. Which solution of the Fermi paradox seems most probable from our present situation of human society? Maybe this solution: Mankind reaches its development limits, standstill follows and then slow or fast regression into a medieval, sustainable society (best case). A scientific study, funded by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center and first published by Ecological Economics journal, concludes: "Just about every model that reflects our reality today is headed for collapse. The fall of the Roman Empire as well as the Han, Maurya, and Gupta empires as well as many developed Mesopotamian empires are all evidence that advanced, complex, and creative civilizations are fragile and impermanent." % Jan Morris comes to a similar conclusion in his extensive studies, "Who Rules the World - Why Civilizations Rule and Are Ruled." We usually refer to the collapse of a civilization as the apocalypse and the messengers who announce such a collapse as the apocalyptic horsemen. So what are these apocalyptic horsemen? Jan Morris sees the following five looming on the horizon of our civilization's development: Famines Epidemics Uncontrolled migration Political instability Climate change But are these really all of them? Let's look at these five first. 2 Eingestellt über www.PDF-ins-Internet.de - Haftung für Inhalt und Inhaber aller Rechte ist der Puplisher Kontaktdaten und Anbieterkennung des Puplishers/Autors entnehmen Sie bitte dem PDF-Archives auf www.PDF-ins-Internet.de. % & These occur in the wake of natural disasters and uncontrolled population growth. Merely "helping the world's hungry" is counterproductive if birth control is not the first priority. Wrongly understood aid only leads further into this dilemma and drags hitherto politically stable states into the abyss with it. In nature, an evolutionary algorithm has been established. A population determines the number of its offspring according to the food supply. Humans have overridden this rule. He produces more and more food and people multiply steadily as if there were no upper limit. Of course, this is only possible as long as peak oil or another peak has not yet been reached. According to current estimates, however, this peak will be reached before 2045. The extent to which alternative energies will be able to compensate for this is still unclear, since many of these solar energy generation plants still rely on fossil fuels for their production. The so-called "solar breeder", a solar plant that produces further solar plants with the extracted energy (simple reproduction) and even still produces energy surpluses (extended reproduction) is not in sight. The forced renunciation of animal food by humans, could not solve the problem, because it would lead to political instabilities. Food is a source of energy for both humans and industry. If the ecological shift to renewable energy (solar energy in the broadest sense to biofuel) succeeds and sustainable agriculture takes hold, famines will probably occur on a massive scale before the year 2045. To prevent this, a controlled demographic development would have to be aimed at, but this is not in sight. Conclusion: at the moment, it is foreseeable that this rider will appear on the horizon in the foreseeable future. Dystopian literature and films are often about the struggle for these human resources. %' & In a globalized world, who will win, the adaptability of pathogens or the pharmaceutical industry? This decisive battle has yet to be fought. If the pathogens win, globalization will also lose. A pandemic is not yet the downfall of mankind. Past experience has shown that while a high percentage of people will always be affected, it need not lead to the extinction of the human population as a whole, but it may lead to political instability and chaos. A genetic reinvention of humans could better address the problem. But we are still very far away from that. Genetic improvements on humans are obsolete today for "moral reasons". It is not politically possible, as it is with plants, to modify human genes to better cope with disease. The evolution by selection and mutation has not been adapted in its speed to the human (quantitative) development for a long time and thus only genetic new constructions would come into question to escape the dilemma. These pandemics or even nuclear catastrophes, which then mutate into zombies and other creatures, are very popular in the dystopian works of literature and film art. Here, of course, one must also include computer games. Zombies are degenerate humans and you can shoot them without a guilty conscience. This is a sinister pattern. In history, foreign peoples or other religions were often classified as non-human, evil and infidel, so that they could then be invaded and exterminated without any qualms. % &( ! In past times, it was usually a consequence of asymmetries in the world caused by economic, cultural and religious differences. The more differentiated the clashing populations were and are, the more devastating the consequences from the resulting political and state instabilities. It is a social illusion that culturally and religiously very different population groups can live together peacefully. This may work in dictatorships, where the dictator of one social group rules and suppresses the other parts of society, or at least uses harshness to prevent civil wars. Historically, such symbioses have usually been short-lived. What is true for individual human beings is also true for cultures and religions: they exploit human 3 Eingestellt über www.PDF-ins-Internet.de - Haftung für Inhalt und Inhaber aller Rechte ist der Puplisher Kontaktdaten und Anbieterkennung des Puplishers/Autors entnehmen Sie bitte dem PDF-Archives auf www.PDF-ins-Internet.de. laziness, fear and greed (Morris theorem) by instrumentalizing these evolutionary traits for their own exercise of power. In our time, this rider is also used as a so-called "migration weapon." Military conflicts, even if they are only planning games at first, are always played out at the beginning with the occurring refugee flows. In dystopian literature, uncontrolled migration often plays only a marginal role. At least, I am not aware of any literature that would have made it the main cause of an apocalypse. % ") &* + # This arises from the previous horsemen of the apocalypse and additionally from asymmetries in society. Significant here is the asymmetry of wealth. When 90 percent of the population has only 10 percent of the wealth in a society and 10 percent has 90 percent of the wealth, this asymmetry has become intolerable. As a result, other asymmetries set in, for example: 90 percent of the population decides against the country going to war, but 90 percent of the parliamentarians vote for it. Parliamentarism today is a modern repetition of the clerical-feudal system of the past with perhaps one difference: the compulsory contributions to this (political) new aristocracy know no bounds. The "modern robber baronism" with taxes and compulsory dues has the advantage that less people die violently in this society than comparatively in the warlord societies, which still come closest to the archaic robber baronism. In dystopian literature, political instabilities and subsequent social collapse are usually only the barely mentioned starting point for the novel's plot. %) &,, ! This horseman has also appeared several times in human evolution. Devastating were especially beginning cold periods, whereas warm periods mostly led to a blossoming of civilization. Since most people today live in large cities on the seacoast, it could be different than in the past. Warming would also cause quite a few problems, especially due to sea level rise. The causes of historical changes in climate were not "man-made" due to the lack of industry. That deforestation of whole areas in the past brought local climate changes is certainly not to be denied, but for global changes these interventions were marginal. The causes of major climate changes (ice age-warm period) in the past were primarily due to changes in the Earth's orbital parameters, i.e. astronomical. An ice age always occurs when the summer solar irradiation in high northern latitudes becomes smaller (cool summers). Rapid climate change is most likely triggered by changes in solar activity. "Climate change" is widely instrumentalized today to push through political agendas and ideologies in the face of opposition. "Doing everything for the good of humanity" comes across as a killer argument and opens a wide gateway into a moral dictatorship. To that extent, this can also lead to intentional political instabilities, which then make it easier to change society. Dystopian literature and films of this genre often borrow from climate change and the ecological destruction of the earth that occurs as a result. From the experiences of the present, perhaps a sixth horseman should be added, religious transformation, the return of the religious. %%') &! " The increasing complexity of the world exceeds the imagination of most people and unsettles them. The meaning of their lives seems to have been lost. More and more people seek support in archaic, religious rites, prayers and meditations. A further factor favoring a religious transformation is that religions, which not infrequently strive to spread their own worldview, are usually opposed to birth planning and, as a result, fundamentalist religions 4 Eingestellt über www.PDF-ins-Internet.de - Haftung für Inhalt und Inhaber aller Rechte ist der Puplisher Kontaktdaten und Anbieterkennung des Puplishers/Autors entnehmen Sie bitte dem PDF-Archives auf www.PDF-ins-Internet.de. also spread through a higher birth rate (womb jihad). The previously valid rules of selection in natural evolution are abolished and replaced by religious selection. The goal of this transformation is always, more or less obviously, a godly life in a godly state. Patriarchal social relations are favored here, in particular the much and early-bearing woman, since this serves again the propagation of the own religious world view. To all this evil is added the fact that there are several views of God and religions that carry a latent potential for violence and destruction. A godly society will not strive for a galactic civilization, at least I don't know of any religion that would see the point of their god worship in that. One insight from the past, however, is that a more advanced civilization simultaneously creates or fosters the forces of its own destruction. Occasionally in dystopian literature, religious structures are reintroduced after the apocalypse with the goal of ensuring the cohesion of the survivors. - "" We do not know the future, our ideas of it are only more or less probable. Let us assume that there is no apocalypse, announced by the Apocalyptic Horsemen, ahead of us. Then we only need to think about what will follow after the Technological Singularity, which was also predicted by Raymond Kurzweil for the year 2045. If we have solved this problem, then a Utopian Age is dawning. Utopian literature can be described along the lines of "Tomorrow's world can be this beautiful!" . ! !" Why will the time around the year 2045 be a deep crisis or unstable for mankind? Singularities are in the mathematical-physical sense infinitely small areas, in which the past understanding of the model fails. In astronomy, black holes are singularities of general relativity. In technology, a singularity is reached when the technology expands at a seemingly infinite rate, when our human understanding of the technology is no longer sufficient. Scoffers claim that the latter is already true for the majority of people today. We cannot look behind a singularity in terms of time, since we do not know what will happen there. But we can formulate the conditions that will apply to a Technological Singularity. The achievement of this Singularity is considered necessary for civilization to progress. The target direction is: posthumanism or transhumanism. If the civilization does not create this critical point in time, a development into a dark age threatens also here. What will be beyond the technical singularity? / " The utopian literature lives on the time after the singularity: rule of the robots, the designed man, colonization of the space ... How can one recognize now, when this time will be reached? Here there are several signs: a) The creation of an artificial intelligence succeeds, which exceeds the human intelligence by far. surpasses the human intelligence. b) The biological evolution is overcome and the genetic reinvention and genetic development of man begins. development of the human being begins. c) Nanotechnology enables its own human-controlled evolution. d) The man-computer-machine being becomes a reality. e) A new source of energy becomes available to mankind: Nuclear fusion? 5 Eingestellt über www.PDF-ins-Internet.de - Haftung für Inhalt und Inhaber aller Rechte ist der Puplisher Kontaktdaten und Anbieterkennung des Puplishers/Autors entnehmen Sie bitte dem PDF-Archives auf www.PDF-ins-Internet.de. All these developments have in the background more or less still the goal to reach the immortality of man in one way or another. Thus the technological singularity encounters its most bitter opponent: the archaic religions, which claim immortality for themselves in paradise or wherever. If we can fend off all these apocalyptic horsemen and leave the technological singularity behind us, then possibly a gate opens for: the most beautiful of all worlds of this universe. 6 Eingestellt über www.PDF-ins-Internet.de - Haftung für Inhalt und Inhaber aller Rechte ist der Puplisher Kontaktdaten und Anbieterkennung des Puplishers/Autors entnehmen Sie bitte dem PDF-Archives auf www.PDF-ins-Internet.de.